Trends in Unwanted Fertility in Developing Countries

The distinction between unwanted and wanted fertility has long been fundamental for scholars and in the formulation of population policy.  From a policy standpoint, a primary goal of public investment in family planning services has been to reduce unwanted fertility, under the assumption that such births have costs for the child, the household, and the community.  I consider national-level trends in unwanted fertility in developing countries from the 1970s to the present, with inter-regional comparisons highlighted.  Three measures of unwanted fertility are examined:  the conventional unwanted total fertility rate, the conditional unwanted fertility rate (a rarely-used measure), and the percentage of births unwanted (a birth cohort measure).  Reflection on the analytical value of each measure is one component of this presentation.  I analyze survey data from 68 countries (292 surveys in total).  In most countries unwanted fertility rates have declined in recent decades, especially the conditional unwanted fertility rate, which has dropped sharply in all regions, most dramatically in Latin America and in Asia & North Africa.  This has been a major public health achievement of the past four decades that deserves to be more celebrated.  By contrast, the percentage of births unwanted has declined less and, indeed, has remained relatively stable or increased in many countries (especially in Sub-Saharan Africa).  A conclusion is that historical trends in unwanted fertility from a parental perspective and child perspective need not go hand-in-hand.  In many countries the burden of unwanted fertility for recent cohorts of children has not improved even while their parents have enjoyed success in avoiding unwanted births.