Les Lundis de l’Ined - Campus Condorcet propose : Projections démographiques probabilistes à très long terme
Présenté par Adrian Raftery (Université de Washington) ; discutant Giancarlo Camarda (Ined UR05 : mortalité, santé, épidémiologie)
Projections démographiques probabilistes à long terme
Population forecasts are used by governments and the private sector for planning, with horizons up to about three generations (around 2100) for different purposes. The traditional methods are deterministic using scenarios, but probabilistic forecasts are desired to get an idea of accuracy, to assess changes, and to make decisions involving risks. In a major breakthrough, since 2015 the United Nations has issued probabilistic population forecasts for all countries using a Bayesian methodology that we review here. Assessment of the social cost of carbon relies on long-term forecasts of carbon emissions, which in turn rely on even longer-range population and economic forecasts, to 2300. We extend the UN method to very-long range population forecasts, by combining the statistical approach with expert review and elicitation. We find that, while world population is projected to grow for most of the rest of this century, it is likely to stabilize in the 22nd century, and to decline in the 23rd century.This is joint work with Hana Ševčíková.
Biographie de Adrian Raftery
Adrian is the Boeing International Professor of Statistics and Sociology, and Adjunct Professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. He is also a faculty affiliate of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences and the Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology. He works on the development of new statistical methods for the social and environmental sciences. An elected member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, he was identified as the world’s most cited researcher in mathematics for the decade 1995-2005 by Thomson-ISI. He has supervised 32 Ph.D. graduates, of whom 21 hold or have held tenure-track university faculty positions.