Population and Environment in Northern Italy during the Sixteenth Century
Guido Alfani
No general consensus has been reached, as yet, on how to interpret sixteenth century Italian demographic dynamics. Such divergences reflect different convictions about the relationship between population and resources. On the base of 164 series of baptisms celebrated in northern Italian parishes and adopting a comparative perspective, this paper progressively evaluates the demographic weight of environmental factors (location in lowland, mountain or coastal areas; urban or rural environment; for rural areas, different settlement patterns and crop regimes), and provides new insight into the relationship between population and resources (Malthusian, "Boserupian", or something else?). The paper reveals a complex situation, where environmental and socioeconomic factors have an impact not only on demographic trends but also on the very model of population change, and where advances in agrarian technology do not always play a demographically positive role.
Socioeconomic Mortality Differentials in Lithuania: Results Obtained by Matching Vital Records with the 2001 Census Data
Domantas Jasilionis, Vladimir M. Shkolnikov, Evgueni M. Andreev, Dmitri A. Jdanov, Dalia Ambrozaitiene, Vlada Stankuniene, France Meslé et Jacques Vallin
When measuring social differences in mortality in the former socialist countries of central and eastern Europe, it has been impossible, until now, to match census data and vital records to avoid the classic problem of bias caused by inconsistency between the individual status recorded in the census and that reported at the time of death. The results presented here come from one of the first studies ever conducted in a former Soviet-bloc country based on matching of individual vital records with census data, in this case deaths in 2001-2004 and the 2001 census. The study considers cause-specific mortality differentials among persons over age 30 by educational level, marital status, ethnic group and place of residence. The results differ from those that would have been obtained with the traditional aggregative approach but confirm the existence of sharp inequalities, notably for infectious diseases and the effects of alcoholism.
Daily Mobility of the Inhabitants of Lille in 2030
Krakutovski Zoran, Armoogum Jimmy
Long term forecasting of mobility is a major challenge for urban transport planning. The demographic approach based on data from periodic surveys provides insight into the behavioural dynamics of individuals belonging to different generations at various stages of their life cycle. The decomposition of temporal effects into an age effect and a generation effect makes it possible to define a sample profile over the life cycle: this is the fundamental concept of the "age-cohort" model for predicting long-term urban mobility. The model is applied to the agglomeration of Lille, where three mobility surveys were conducted at 11-year intervals.
Who will be Caring for Europe’s Dependent Elders in 2030?
Joëlle Gaymu, Peter Ekamper, Gijs Beets
This article presents demographic projections of the living arrangements of older adults up to 2030 in nine European countries. They are based on country data collected as part of the Felicie project. The aim is to describe how changes in the sociodemographic characteristics of older people (marital situation, health status, existence of surviving children) will affect their living arrangements and thereby modify the form and intensity of their care needs. The results show that over the next 25 years, whatever the overall health trends, the supply of potential family carers, i.e. partners and offspring, will increase and that populations with the greatest need of professional assistance - persons living alone with no available family members or those liable to enter an institution - will grow more slowly than the dependent population in general. However, the ageing of this population, the growing number of elderly men with a dependent spouse and the greater longevity of couples in which both members have disabilities, all point to rapid growth in demand for professional assistance in years to come. These results indicate that policies for managing dependence will need to focus on support for family carers.
Immigration and Changing Labour Force Structure in the Southern European Union
Andreu Domingo et Fernando Gil-Alonso
This short paper considers how very rapid growth in immigration flows may have shaped changes in the structure of the labour force in Spain relative to that of the other southern countries of the European Union (Greece, Italy and Portugal) plus France (a traditional immigration country). We consider the processes at work in each sector of economic activity, distinguishing those where native-born labour is being replaced by foreign-born labour, those characterized by a combined increase of the two, and those that appear to be more of a national workers’ preserve. The findings show that Spain, Italy and Greece share similar characteristics, different from those of France and Portugal, attributable notably to rising educational levels among the young and much higher female labour force participation compared to previous generations in these countries.
Quality of Age Reporting: Extension and Application of a Modified Whipple’s Index
Thomas Spoorenberg
On the basis of modifications to the original Whipple’s index, this short paper proposes a summary general measure of age reporting quality - the total modified Whipple’s index (Wtot) - in complement to the developments proposed by Noumbissi (1992). To test its pertinence and validity, the new index is applied to sex-specific reported age data in India, Morocco and Switzerland collected at various dates. The results obtained are then compared with the Myers’ blended indices and the original Whipple’s indices obtained with the same data. This comparison shows that because the new total modified Whipple’s index is more sensitive than the original Whipple’s index, it provides a more accurate measure of age reporting quality and produces results identical to those obtained with Myers’ blended index.
