Population 2007, n° 3

• ARTICLES
• Childbearing Patterns of Foreign Women in a New Immigration Country: The Case of Spain - M. Roig Vila, T. Castro Martín

• Estimating Mortality with the Intercensus Cohort Component Method: Application to the Solomon Islands - G. Groenewold, J. van Ginneken, B. De Bruijn, J. De Beer

THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION IN FRANCE

• Recent Demographic Developments in France: Fertility at a More Than 30-Year High - F. Prioux

Heat Waves, Ordinary Temperature Fluctuations and Mortality in France since 1971 - G. Rey, A. Fouillet, É. Jougla, D. Hémon

SHORT PAPERS

• Trajectories and Landmark Events: How People Narrate their Lives. Analysis of Life Course Facts and Perceptions - C. Laborde, É. Lelièvre, G. Vivier

• The Birth of a Child: Perception as a Key Life Event - O. Samuel, S. Vilter

• Tuberculosis Mortality among the Jews of Tunis (Tunisia) in the First Half of the Twentieth century - D. Cattan, A. Mallet, J. Feingold

BOOK REVIEWS

Spain, a country of emigration during centuries, has become a country of immigration in the last twenty years -the foreign population increased from 0.9% in 1991 to 8.5% in 2005. Since Spain also has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, the potential impact of immigration on the demographic future of the country is large. Yet immigrants’ fertility patterns have received relatively little attention. This study compares a series of reproductive indicators for Spanish and foreign women using birth microdata and presents an analysis of recent fertility by region of origin based on the 2001 Census. The results show that observed fertility gaps between Spanish and foreign women are largely explained by differential socio-demographic characteristics, in particular, by age and education. Since some of the hypothesized effects of migration on fertility are contingent on length of residence in the host country, the study also compares fertility levels across migrant cohorts and detects patterns consistent with both the adaptation and the disruption hypotheses.

Estimating Mortality with the Intercensus Cohort Component Method: Application to the Solomon Islands
George Groenewold, Jeroen van Ginneken, Bart De Bruijn, Joop De Beer

Developed after application of standard mortality estimation methods revealed inconsistent results, the Intercensus Cohort Component Method (ICCM) is used to estimate annual life expectancies at birth in an intercensus period. It consists of three main steps. The first step entails the iterative projection of age distributions of one census to the date of the next census, using different constant mortality assumptions, until best-fitting model life tables for men and women are found. These reflect average mortality conditions in the projection period. In the second step, the concomitant life expectancies at birth and estimates of their rate of change are used to derive regression equations, which are used to predict annual life expectancies and life tables. In a third step, the precision of estimates is assessed from results of a final projection that uses the predicted annual model life tables. ICCM-predicted life expectancies at birth for Solomon Islanders for 1999 are 61.0 and 61.5 years for men and women, respectively. These values are in accordance with estimates of fertility and migration.

Recent Demographic Developments in France: Fertility at a More Than 30-Year High
France Prioux

Metropolitan France (mainland + Corsica) numbered 61.5 million inhabitants on 1 January 2007. The population grew at a rapid rate of 6.1 per thousand in 2006, thanks to a 2.9% increase in births and a 1.4% decrease in deaths. The number of foreigners admitted as residents fell very moderately in 2005. The total fertility rate (TFR) rose 3.2% to 1.98 children per woman in 2006. Completed fertility nevertheless declined between the 1960 and 1970 cohorts, but is not expected to fall below 2 children per woman. The number of induced abortions has been revised slightly downward. Annual estimates have remained just below 210,000 since the 1990s, except for a mild increase in 2004. While the number of civil unions (PACSs) rose a further 28%, that of marriages fell 3.3%, the modest recovery in 2005 having proved short-lived. The enactment of a new divorce law was followed by a sharp rise in divorces: the total divorce rate moved up to 52.3 divorces per 100 marriages in 2005, retreating slightly to 46.9 in 2006. Life expectancy at birth gained 0.4 years to 77.2 years for men and 0.3 years to 84.1 years for women in 2006. Substantial improvements were recorded for nearly all medical causes of death in 2004, particularly cardiovascular diseases. Thanks to preventive measures, excess mortality due to the July 2006 heatwave was much lower than expected.

Heat Waves, Ordinary Temperature Fluctuations and Mortality in France since 1971
Grégoire Rey, Anne Fouillet, Éric Jougla, Denis Hémon

Six major heat waves were recorded in metropolitan France from 1971 to 2003, each accompanied by high excess mortality. The medical causes of death directly related to heat account for only part of this excess mortality, and almost all medical causes of death show an excess. Some populations- older people and subjects with certain specific pathologies - are particularly vulnerable. Mortality is also correlated with the "ordinary" daily fluctuations in summer temperatures. A model fitted for the period 1975-2003 is used to identify the temperature indicators that are strongly predictive of daily mortality. This model is then used to predict mortality during the summers of 2004-2006 on the basis of recorded temperatures in this period. It shows that the July 2006 heat wave was indeed accompanied by a large excess mortality, but that this excess was only one-third as large as could have been expected. The "vulnerability" of the French population thus seems to have been substantially lower in the July 2006 heat wave than in the period 1975-2003. Taken together, these observations highlight the importance of heat-related mortality risks but also the potential capacity of populations to adapt to these risks, as was probably the case following the 2003 heat wave.

Trajectories and Landmark Events: How People Narrate their Lives. Analysis of Life Course Facts and Perceptions
Caroline Laborde, Éva Lelièvre, Géraldine Vivier

The life course survey Biographies et entourage, conducted by INED in 2001, recorded not only the respondents’ reports of the factual events in their family, residential and occupational histories but also some subjective elements. The aim was to take into account the way respondents saw their lives in retrospect. Respondents were asked to divide their lives so far into periods, explain and interpret these significant phases, and identify the turning points, the general tone of each period and what they saw as the landmark events. Our initial analyses of this abundant material show how individuals’ life courses are structured around certain factual landmarks, especially landmarks in their conjugal lives - but the respondents’ subjective experience and characterization of events prove to be varied, non-conventional and not readily predictable. The study shows the usefulness of recording such retrospective assessments in a life course survey. Being able to compare the meanings that individuals confer on their lives with the factual events concerned provides a wealth of information for interpreting turning points and ruptures in the life course.

The Birth of a Child: Perception As a Key Life Event
Olivia Samuel et Sylvie Vilter

In a context of low fertility, a birth is a rare event in an individual’s life. In this short paper, the authors examine how the event is perceived in retrospect. Is the birth of a child seen as a key personal milestone? On the basis of an open question in the INSEE Life History survey on construction of identity conducted in 2003, the socioeconomic determinants of the perceived importance of a birth can be identified. Generally speaking, the most advantaged individuals are most likely to report that the births of their children were key events in their life. Trade-offs between the differing priorities of family and work, as well as the tensions of identity associated with the roles played in these two spheres are one suggested explanation for this. The unequal ability to express affect in words via an open question is another.

Tuberculosis Mortality among the Jews of Tunis (Tunisia) in the First Half of the Twentieth Century
Daniel Cattan, Alain Mallet et Josué Feingold

Studies in different countries have revealed lower tuberculosis mortality among Jewish populations than other communities living in the same regions. This pattern was also found in the city of Tunis. This study uses Tunis mortality statistics to examine the finding more closely. It shows that in the first half of the twentieth century, i.e. before the development of antibiotic treatments, tuberculosis mortality was lower among the Jewish than the Muslim, French, Italian and Maltese populations, but that the Jewish population had a higher infant mortality rate than either the Italian or French populations. Over the period 1919-1939, for example, the average annual tuberculosis mortality and infant mortality rates were 81 per 100,000 and 164 per 1,000 respectively in the Jewish population, against 193 per 100,000 and 107 per 1,000, respectively, in the French population. This pattern cannot be accounted for by living conditions, although the role of dietary differences cannot be excluded, as consumption of kosher meat in the Jewish population may have prevented contamination by the bovine tubercle bacillus. Genetic factors are also posited, but none have been identified with certainty.

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