Population 2007, n°1

Debate on the Future of the Discipline

• Whither demography? Strengths and Weaknesses of the Discipline over Fifty Years of Change - D. Tabutin
• The Need for a Multi-Disciplinary Approach - G. Caselli,V. Egidi
• Demography, a Fully Formed Science or a Science in the Making? An Outline Programme - D. Courgeau, R. Franck
• Towards a Scientific Understanding of Demographic Behaviour - J. Hobcraft
• Demography, Present and Future - J. Hoem

ARTICLES

• Estimating the Number of Abortions in France, 1976-2002 - C. Rossier, C. Pirus
• Interpretation and Use of the United Nations 1982 Model Life Tables: With Particular Reference to Developing Countries - Z. Zhao

SHORT PAPERS: Using CensuS Data to Measure Mobility and second Home Ownership

• The New French Census and its Impact on Mobility Studies - J.-L. Pan ké Shon
• Inter-Regional Migration Flows in France over the Last Fifty Years - B. Baccaïni
• Second Homes in Spain: Socio-Demographic and Geographical Profiles - J. A. Módenes Cabrerizo, J. López Colás

BOOK REVIEWS

How has the number of abortions in metropolitan France varied since 1975? The sources of abortion data (notification forms established in 1975 and hospital statistics since the mid-1990s) do not agree. Given the incomplete nature of the notification form data, INED previously produced estimates of the total number: 250,000 abortions in 1976, 262,000 in 1980, 230,000 in 1987 and 225,000 in 1993. According to the hospital statistics, elective abortions totalled 180,500 in 1994 and 206,500 in 2003. We show that the trend-line indicated by the INED estimates (fall in the 1980s and stability in the early 1990s) appears to be correct. We also show that the rise in the number of abortions recorded in hospital statistics in the late 1990s appears to be a statistical artefact caused by improved data collection.

The Interpretation and Use of the United Nations 1982 Model Life Tables: With Particular Reference to Developing Countries
Zhongwei Zhao

The United Nations Population Division published a set of model life tables for developing countries in 1982. These mortality models were soon accepted and have been used widely in demographic teaching and research. Despite that, however, a number of questions regarding the interpretation and use of the UN model life tables have not been adequately answered. This paper examines mortality changes in the populations studied by the UN Population Division in the early 1980s and compares their mortality patterns with the mortality models constructed by the Population Division and by Coale and Demeny. It shows that mortality patterns in many of these populations are better represented by Coale-Demeny mortality models rather than by the UN models. Some UN mortality models are not distinctive and mortality patterns similar to these models have been found in many developed countries. In most populations, age patterns of mortality have gone through considerable changes during their mortality decline. On the basis of these results, the paper addresses several issues regarding the interpretation and use of the UN model life tables.

The new French Census and its Impact on Mobility Studies
Jean-Louis Pan Ké Shon

In France, the transition from the traditional census to the "new census" has answered certain needs while raising a number of concerns. INSEE has devised an original methodology based on the aggregation of five annual census surveys to produce the so-called "new census". Once the first five-year cycle has been completed, data from the most recent annual survey will be added and those of the oldest year removed so that a complete cycle is obtained on a rolling basis each year. This radically new approach is attracting the attention of demographers, statisticians and geographers beyond the frontiers of France. The advantages of an annual census and its large body of data are countered, however, by the drawbacks of desynchronized data collection, the loss of exhaustiveness and the absence of spatial data at highly localized levels. The new census is assessed here primarily from the viewpoint of residential mobility. After a presentation of its complex methodology, its potential advantages and drawbacks are reviewed in detail. Last, the forseeable impact on the permanent demographic sample, a rich longitudinal body of data based on the census, is assessed.

Inter-Regional Migration Flows in France over the Last Fifty Years
Brigitte Baccaïni

Data from successive censuses give a picture of internal migration in France over the last fifty years. After twenty years of decline, residential mobility has been increasing over the last ten years, among the under-40s especially. The patterns of regional migration have changed radically since the 1950s. The Paris region, once the most attractive region of France (with strongly positive net migration) is now the least attractive, with many more departures than arrivals. The western regions, on the other hand, which posted a negative migration balance in the 1960s, are attracting an increasing number of migrants. The north-east remains unattractive, while the south has maintained a strongly positive migration balance. This overall picture varies by age group however, and the Paris region is still the most attractive region for the 20-29 age group. Net migration varies as a result of changes in the numbers of arrivals and departures, and these two components follow different patterns from one region to another. In the Paris region for example, the decrease in net migration over the last fifty years is due mainly to a sharp increase in the number of departing Parisians, since the number of migrants arriving from the provinces has fallen only slightly.

Second Homes in Spain: Socio-Demographic and Geographical Profiles
Juan Antonio Módenes Cabrerizo, Julián López Colás

This short paper profiles households who own a second home in Spain by their socio-demographic, residential and geographical characteristics as extracted from the 2001 census data, and studies the determinants of this residential practice. The authors test the "compensation hypothesis" which postulates an association between the quality of the residential environment of the primary residence and the propensity to have a second home. For households possessing a second home, they establish a positive correlation with car ownership, age of household reference person, size of municipality and characteristics of the primary residence.

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