The Death Toll of the Rwandan Genocide : A Detailed Analysis for Gikongoro ProvinceVerpoorten Marijke
The death toll of the Rwandan genocide remains highly debatable. The frequently quoted estimate of 500,000 Tutsi killed is based on the population census of 1991. However, two unanswered questions make this estimate unreliable. First, how many Tutsi lived in Rwanda prior to the genocide? Second, how many Tutsi survived? With respect to the first question, critics say that the proportion of Tutsi was under-reported in the 1991 census. By comparing the census data with population data of the local administration of Gikongoro Prefecture, we provide evidence for this allegation and study how the under-reporting may affect the estimate of the genocide death toll. We also use local population data for 117 administrative sectors within Gikongoro Prefecture to make a detailed analysis of the spatial pattern of killings in Gikongoro. We find that Tutsi in Gikongoro had, on average, a 25% chance of surviving the genocide. The survival rate for women was only slightly higher than for men: 29% versus 21%. The location of huge massacres and the way violence spread across sectors were more decisive for the Tutsi survival rate than whether or not local authorities opposed the genocide.
The Demographic Situation in France.
Recent demographic developments in France
Prioux France
In 2004, a year marked by a sharp drop in the number of deaths and a small increase in births, natural increase was relatively high. France is one of the few European countries whose population is rising primarily due to natural growth. Immigration increased again in 2003, though at a slightly slower pace than in 2002. The total fertility rate increased slightly to 1.9 children per women in 2004. Completed fertility drops sharply after the 1960 cohort however, and may fall below 2 children per women from the 1970 cohort. The number of induced abortions has remained relatively stable. Though the number of civil unions (PACS) is still increasing, the number of marriages has been falling since 2000. The proportion of ever-married men and women at age 50 decreases from one cohort to the next, while the mean age at first marriage is increasing. The frequency of union dissolution (divorces and separation of unmarried couples) has increased considerably. These changes in conjugal behaviour are raising the number of adult men and women who live alone.Life expectancy registered an exceptional increase in 2004 (+0.9 years for women and +0.8 years for men), and this cannot be explained solely by a "harvest effect" following the exceptional mortality in 2003 due to the August heatwave, or by the absence of an influenza epidemic in 2004. Mortality among the elderly is continuing to decline, and this decrease is largely responsible for the increase in mean length of life, for women in particular.
Two children or three? Influence of family policy and sociodemographic factors
Breton Didier, Prioux France
French family policy has always provided specific support to families with three or more children, over the period 1978-1982 in particular. The authors discuss the effectiveness of this policy by comparing fertility at birth order three and above in France and western Europe and by observing changes in the proportion of mothers of two children who have progressed to a third child (parity progression ratio A2) since the 1970s. They show that targeting policy on the third child did indeed influence the frequency of these births, but that this influence is limited and difficult to quantify. The article then focuses on the characteristics associated with the parity progression ratio A2. The PPR is most strongly influenced by age at second birth, the length of the interval between the second and third births and nationality. All the other variables examined - sex of first two children, parents’ sibship size, union history, mother’s occupational history, educational attainment and socio-occupational category of each partner - are significant, even after controlling for structural effects. Recent tendencies, notably the increase in age at second birth, point to an ongoing downward trend in the probability of having a third child.
Definitions, Collection Methods and Measurement.
Surveying the HIV-Positive Population in France. The VESPA 2003 survey
Peretti-Watel Patrick, Riandey Benoît, Dray-Spira Rosemary, Bouhnik Anne-Deborah, Sitta Rémi, Obadia Yolande and the VESPA survey team
The ANRS-EN12-VESPA 2003 survey interviewed a national, representative sample of the HIV-positive population attending hospital outpatient services. Conducting the survey in a hospital made it easier to identify and contact HIV-positive patients, but involved various biases: the role of the physicians in choosing which patients would be interviewed, lack of time for certain categories of patients, oral and written language skills required to answer questions. The survey design enabled us to study these biases in detail. Overall, significant biases were observed, but the resulting distortions in the sample were quite small. Among the factors responsible for non-participation in the survey, those related to the patient weighed more than those linked to survey organization. Alongside the fact that persons infected through homosexual transmission were more likely to respond, which probably reflects a greater ability and willingness to participate, we also noted the importance of work and family constraints, whose effects are probably sexually differentiated, as well as the language barrier, which puts foreigners at a disadvantage, especially for the written questionnaire.
