Population 2004 n° 2

• Demographic and Social Characteristics of Murderers and their Victims: A Survey on a Département of the Paris Region in the 1990s - Laurent Mucchielli

• Migrants and AIDS: Risk Management versus Social Control. An Example from the Senegal River Valley - Richard Lalou, Victor Piché

• Can the Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918 Explain the Baby Boom of 1920 in Neutral Norway? - Svenn-Erik Mamelund

The Demographic Situation of Europe and the Developed Countries Overseas: An Annual Report

• Recent Demographic Trends in the Developed Countries - Sardon Jean-Paul

• The European Union at the Time of Enlargement - Monnier Alain
  

Demographic and Social Characteristics of Murderers and their Victims: A Survey on a Département of the Paris Region in the 1990s
Mucchieli L.

Based on about one hundred criminal cases which were tried by a Court of Appeal in the southwest of the Paris region over ten years (1987-1996), this article presents the demographic and social characteristics of 122 murderers and their victims. It brings out the very high proportion of individuals from the working classes or from the poorest strata of the population among the population of murderers as well as of victims, and the weight of economic inactivity and unemployment. The importance of family disruption (desertion, various types of foster care) and still more importantly, of family conflicts, is emphasized. On an empirical level, these findings are compared with those of studies conducted in other countries, particularly the abundant quantitative literature from North America. On a theoretical level, this article takes its place among discussions initiated by American authors who have worked on the notions of disorganization and social disintegration, and by French authors who have worked on the notions of disaffiliation, disqualification and dis-insertion, and who suggest that researchers move beyond the mere social and family characteristics of the individuals at the time of the crime and take into account their life histories and particularly the family and school elements that left their marks on their entire life itinerary.

Migrants and AIDS: Risk Management versus Social Control. An Example from the Senegal River Valley
Lalou R., Piché V.

Even though numerous previous studies have demonstrated the existence of a relationship between mobility and AIDS, the complex mechanisms subjacent to this relationship still remain relatively unknown. The study presented here is based on a survey carried out in 2000 in the Senegal River valley. It specifically examines the link between migration and risky sexual behaviour in the return zone (risk of spread) by using a conceptual framework which takes into consideration (1) various types of mobility, (2) different social contexts, and (3) the non-migrants. The macro-social level is represented here by the choice of two zones in the Senegal River valley that stand in sharp contrast from the point of view of mobility and socio-economic context. Generally, the analyses show that the net effect of the migratory experience is significant in some social contexts and in relation to the social position of migrants in the return area. International migrants avoid the social risk of stigmatization by remaining faithful to their partners, while internal migrants reduce the risk of infection through frequent use of the condom. The inhibitory influence of migration on risky sexual practices in the return zone could explain the favourable situation of Senegal where the AIDS epidemic is moderate and relatively stable compared to most other countries in the region. Information and education programmes should take the social context into account by promoting responsible behaviour among individuals and community level responses aimed at protection based on solidarity.

Can the Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918 Explain the Baby Boom of 1920 in Neutral Norway?
Mamelund S.-E.

Two years after the First World War ended there was a surge in European birth rates, including in Norway that had been a neutral country. This paper tests the hypothesis that it was in fact the Spanish influenza that caused the Norwegian baby boom rather than the close of the war. The paper uses multivariate regression analysis, while previous studies have been univariate and largely descriptive. By using regional monthly data, the independent effect of the Spanish influenza morbidity on fertility over the years 1918-1920, net of the effect of mortality, is estimated. The fact that Norway was neutral was important in counter-balancing the influence of the war on fertility and nuptiality. Furthermore, the Norwegian data utilized in the analysis are of superior quality in a European context in that registration of population data, including vital statistics, continued normally in Norway undisturbed by the war.

Recent Demographic Trends in the Developed Countries
Sardon Jean-Paul

The relative overall stability of the population of continental Europe is accounted for by population growth in western Europe alone, mainly from immigration. Central and eastern Europe and Russia have negative natural increase, with the balance of migration being positive only in Russia. This contrasts with the United States, where the natural increase rate and net migration are less unbalanced and substantially positive. Fertility trends and levels present quite contrasting pictures across the whole of the continent, with the total fertility rate ranging in 2002 from 1.10 children per woman in Ukraine to 1.97 in Ireland. Central and eastern Europe have the lowest fertility levels, and the most pronounced downward trend, notwithstanding clear recoveries in Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Armenia. There is an almost universal decrease in women’s completed fertility, which nevertheless remains close to replacement level in the United States and New Zealand. This reduction in completed fertility is accompanied by an increase in permanent infertility. The marriage rate is continuing to rise in most countries of western Europe, while in central and eastern Europe, the fall which followed the collapse of the old socialist orders now seems to have abated almost everywhere. The average duration of life continues to increase in almost all European countries. While female life expectancy at birth is among the highest in the world in some western European countries (Spain, Switzerland, France and Italy), it is still almost 2 years lower even there than that of Japanese women.

The European Union at the Time of Enlargement
Monnier Alain

The accession of ten new members on 1 May 2004 produced an increase of 74 million in the population of the European Union, which now counts 455 million inhabitants. The Europe of Six had 167 million inhabitants in 1957. Since that date, the population of the Community has thus increased by 288 million, as a result of successive enlargements (235 million) and of natural increase and migration (53 million). In recent years, the population growth of the Europe of Fifteen has come mainly from the balance of migration (roughly 1 million people a year), the natural increase being in the region of 0.4 million.
Among the new members, the eight countries of central Europe are characterized by a negative or at most very low population growth, the result of fertility that is lower than in the countries of the Europe of Fifteen and of mortality that is higher. Because of past trends, demographic ageing is slightly less marked in these countries than in the Fifteen.
The European Union of Twenty-Five represents around 7.5% of the world population (but 16% of the over-60s) and slightly more than 60% of the population of continental Europe. It exhibits a large differential in population growth relative to the United States (3.2 per 1,000 and 9.1 per 1,000, respectively).

 

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