Population 2002 n° 1

EDITORIAL BY F. HÉRAN AND H. LERIDON

• One wedding, Two divorces ? Consistency and Inconsistency of Male and Female Responses in Russian Divorce Surveys - P. Festy et I. Kortchagina

• Life Cycle Variability in the Microeconomic Determinants of Urban-Rural Migration - C. Detang-Dessendre, V. Piguet, B. Schmitt

• Economic Integration of New Immigrants in the Montreal Labor Market: A longitudinal Approach - V. Piché, J. Renaud, L. Gingras

• Law or Speculation ? A Debate on the Method of Forecasting Population Size in the 1920s - H.A. de Gans

THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION OF EUROPE AND THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES OVERSEAS:AN ANNUAL REPORT

• Recent Demographic Trends in the Developed Countries - J.-P. Sardon

• Mortality in Europe: the Divergence Between East and West - F. Meslé, J. Vallin

The responses of women and men in two Russian surveys of divorced persons taken in 1993 and 1998 respectively are compared here. The sample does not include men and women who can be matched individually, but independent sets of respondents drawn from the same sampling frame so as to make a statistical comparison possible.
The consistency of men’s and women’s responses is generally good, especially for factual questions, whether they relate to the period before or after the marriage breakdown. Discrepancies regarding the number of children of the dissolved marriage indicate, surprisingly, that men’s responses were more reliable than women’s.
There is systematic disagreement for all questions on the respective share of each spouse (and their parents). It is always inflated when reported by the respondent, in comparison with the share reported by the former husband or wife. This may well reflect the aftermath of conflict.

Life Cycle Variability in the Microeconomic Determinants of Urban-Rural Migration
Détang-Dessendre C., Piguet V., Schmitt B

The objective of this study is to provide an analytical framework that would make it possible to identify the factors that account for individual mobility as a function of the position in the life cycle and of the geographic - i.e. urban or rural - origin. We start with the hypothesis that migration decisions result from a complex calculus where the individual aims at satisfying certain needs (occupational and residential) in the face of certain constraints (financial, familial or educational) while taking into account the local levels of the supply of labour, housing, environment, availability of services, etc. Those needs and constraints differ at every stage of an individual’s life cycle. The probability of migration between 1982 and 1990 is estimated using a national sub-sample extracted from the French Permanent Demographic Sample (EDP). The results show that, among individuals aged 15 to 24 in 1982, occupational concerns have a significant effect on migration choice, especially among the young who were living in a rural area in 1982. Among 25-44 year-olds, family structure (including the birth of children) and the type of accommodation play a prominent role in accounting for migration, while the occupation seems less important. Among the older age groups (those who were aged 45 to 64 in 1982), retirement combined with changes in family structure (the empty nest stage) affects the probability of migration, particularly for individuals who were residing in an urban area at the beginning of the period.

Economic Integration of New Immigrants in the Montreal Labor Market: A Longitudinal Approach
Piché Victor, Renaud Jean, Gingras Lucie

The economic integration of immigrants is most frequently studied with cross-sectional data (censuses and surveys). Here we analyse the process of integration of immigrants into the labour market, using a longitudinal survey carried out in Montreal with a cohort of immigrants who arrived in Quebec in 1989. The central hypothesis of our research is that the national origin plays an important role in the immigrant’s economic integration, defined here by access to a first job and the capacity to remain employed in the labour market (i.e., number of weeks worked) during the first 18 months after arrival. The results indicate that once socio-demographic and human capital variables are taken into account, immigrants from developing countries and from Eastern Europe have greater difficulties than those from the United States, France and the rest of Europe in becoming integrated into the labour market.

Law or speculation? A debate on the method of forecasting population size in the 1920s
De Gans Henk A

The interwar period witnessed the emergence, diffusion and international adoption of population forecasting in the form of the cohort-component projection methodology. The interaction of population structure by age and sex and age-sex specific rates of the components of population change, mortality, fertility and migration, was used to indicate the most likely future course of national populations. However, right from the beginning the demographic approach was challenged by a revival of the belief that the future course of population is governed by a law. The belief was based on the (re)discovery of a homeostatic model, the so called law of logistic population growth. The logistic approach to population forecasting was advocated by the American geneticist Raymond Pearl, who introduced it in the 1920s. It replaced the 19th century Malthusian law of geometrical population growth. The decade of the 1920s witnessed the confrontation of the "logistic law" and "demographic" approaches. This article discusses the background and context of the confrontation of the two approaches, the issues at stake and the outcome of the contest. The debate on the method of forecasting population was initially a debate between biology and demography. The controversy was played out in conferences, articles and books, on the sidelines of the field where the technical innovations were made. The cohort-component method was easily applied in planning. It provided detailed insights into the factors accounting for the dynamics of population, and yielded details on the future population by age and sex.

Recent Demographic Trends in the Developed Countries
Sardon Jean-Paul

The approximate stability of Continental Europe as a whole is due solely to the growth of population in western Europe, mainly from immigration. In central and eastern Europe, and in Russia, natural increase is negative, and only Russia experiences positive net migration. The growth rate of the European Union’s population is 2.4 times less than the United States, and its natural increase 6 times less. The total fertility rate of the Union has been rising slightly since 1998 and amounts to 1.50 children per woman in 2000, i.e., 0.6 children fewer than the United States. It is rising in almost all western European countries, ranging from 1.23 children per woman in Italy to 2.08 in Iceland. The lowest fertility is encountered in central and eastern Europe: from 1.11 children per woman in Armenia to 1.21 in Russia, with the Czech Republic (1.14) and probably Ukraine falling in between. The slight rise observed in 2000 does not reflect a broadly shared desire to bear a child for the millennium and does not call into question the near-general decrease in lifetime fertility of the cohorts born since the late1950s. Marriage rates are rising in most western European countries, but have generally declined in central and eastern Europe to levels that are below those of western Europe. Average life expectancy is still making progress in western Europe, with slightly higher gains for men. Net gains have also been recorded in all eastern European countries except Moldova and especially Russia, where male life expectancy lost another year in 2000.

Mortality in Europe: the Divergence Between East and West
Meslé France, Vallin Jacques

After a period of general convergence, the 1960s were marked by the divergence between the life expectancies of eastern European countries, where all progress came to a halt, and those of the rest of Europe where health care made large strides. A hierarchical analysis of age-specific mortality patterns shows that this divergence goes together with the development of very different patterns of age at death; in the countries of eastern Europe, and especially in the USSR, excess mortality at adult ages is spectacularly high.
Cause-specific analysis reveals the decisive role played by two kinds of diseases. On the one hand, "man-made diseases" (alcoholism, smoking, car accidents, etc.) have continued to increase in the east, whereas they were curbed in the west starting in the 1960s. On the other hand, eastern Europe was unable to join the cardiovascular revolution that had enabled the west to increase its life expectancy levels. The considerable divergence between eastern and western Europe should not hide the differences that still remain among western countries. Indeed, mortality patterns are changing in the west, and the traditional opposition between north and south is undergoing radical transformations.

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