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Europe and the spectre of sub-Saharan migration

Population and Societies

558, September 2018

Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to represent 22% of the world’s population in 2050, versus 14% today. The number of migrants originally from this region should therefore increase. But by how much and toward which destinations? François Héran situates African migration in a global context of diasporas. He shows that the scenario for 2050, in which sub-Saharan migrants make up 25% of Europe’s population, does not stand up to scrutiny. The most realistic figure is five times less.

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