Mortality in countries of the former USSR.
Call for paper
International Seminar "Mortality in countries of the former
USSR. Fifteen years after break-up: change or continuity?"
Organized by INED, Kiev Institute for Demogpraphy and Social
Studies, Moscow Centre for Demography and Human Ecology, and the
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.
In 1991, following the break-up of the USSR, most of the newly
independent states replaced the former Communist regime with new
political and economic systems based to a varying extent on free
initiative and a market economy. Have these dramatic changes been
accompanied by radically new or even diverging demographic trends
among the different populations of the new states? The main purpose
of this seminar is to examine this question in relation to
mortality.
From the mid sixties, the USSR experienced a slow deterioration of
its health situation which, despite appearances, was not
fundamentally questioned by the very temporary effects of
Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign. Are there any grounds for
believing that, beyond this epiphenomenon, the political and
economic changes of the early nineties might finally lead to a
turnaround in trends that gives hope for health improvement? Is
such an expectation more realistic for some of the former USSR
countries than for others? And, if so, to what factors can supposed
or observed differences be attributed?
The aim of this seminar, which will bring together researchers from
countries of the former USSR and specialists from outside the area,
will be to shed light on age-specific mortality and life expectancy
trends by taking account of dynamics specific to the main causes of
death and by assessing the role played by social inequalities,
cultural differences and geographic heterogeneities. The extent to
which large regions of the former USSR share specific patterns of
change with countries in neighbouring regions with similar
historical, geographical or cultural traits, will be also
discussed. The overview of health trends in countries of the former
USSR will also include comparisons with Central European countries
that were also ruled by Communist regimes for several decades, and
with western countries. Finally, possible future changes will be
debated, specially mortality assumptions, in the light of recent
observed trends.
Main themes
1. Data collection - Death registration and mortality estimates - Collecting and coding causes of death, and quality assessment
2. Mortality trends - Age-specific mortality profiles - Infant and child mortality - Adult mortality - Old-age mortality
3. Medical causes of death - General overviews. Age and cause-of-death components of life expectancy changes or differences - Cardiovascular diseases - Infectious diseases - Cancers - External causes - New health threats - Etc.
4. Differential mortality - Sex - Social categories - Education - Urban/rural - Geography - Ethnicity - Central European experiences - Etc.
5. Elements of explanation - The role of risk factors (alcohol, tobacco, environment, etc.) - Changes in health systems and health policies - Social systems and the welfare state - Biological and social aspects of Russian excess mortality - Economic changes and mortality - Culture and health - Causes of adult excess mortality
6. Forecasting mortality - What hypotheses can be used as a basis for forecasting mortality? - Can modelling past trends help to make projections? - To what extent do past forecasts fit with recent trends? - Case studies
International Organizing Committee (IOC) Serhii Pyrozhkov (IDSS, Kiev, president) and Natalia Foygt (IDSS, Kiev, organiser), Anatoli Vishnevsky (CDHE, Moscow), Vladimir Shkolnikov and Evgeni Andreev (MPIDR, Rostock), France Meslé and Jacques Vallin (INED, Paris)
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