Mortality in countries of the former USSR.
Call for paper

From 12 to 14 October 2006 at Kiev

International Seminar "Mortality in countries of the former USSR. Fifteen years after break-up: change or continuity?"
Organized by INED, Kiev Institute for Demogpraphy and Social Studies, Moscow Centre for Demography and Human Ecology, and the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.

In 1991, following the break-up of the USSR, most of the newly independent states replaced the former Communist regime with new political and economic systems based to a varying extent on free initiative and a market economy. Have these dramatic changes been accompanied by radically new or even diverging demographic trends among the different populations of the new states? The main purpose of this seminar is to examine this question in relation to mortality.
From the mid sixties, the USSR experienced a slow deterioration of its health situation which, despite appearances, was not fundamentally questioned by the very temporary effects of Gorbachev’s anti-alcohol campaign. Are there any grounds for believing that, beyond this epiphenomenon, the political and economic changes of the early nineties might finally lead to a turnaround in trends that gives hope for health improvement? Is such an expectation more realistic for some of the former USSR countries than for others? And, if so, to what factors can supposed or observed differences be attributed?


The aim of this seminar, which will bring together researchers from countries of the former USSR and specialists from outside the area, will be to shed light on age-specific mortality and life expectancy trends by taking account of dynamics specific to the main causes of death and by assessing the role played by social inequalities, cultural differences and geographic heterogeneities. The extent to which large regions of the former USSR share specific patterns of change with countries in neighbouring regions with similar historical, geographical or cultural traits, will be also discussed. The overview of health trends in countries of the former USSR will also include comparisons with Central European countries that were also ruled by Communist regimes for several decades, and with western countries. Finally, possible future changes will be debated, specially mortality assumptions, in the light of recent observed trends.

Main themes

1. Data collection - Death registration and mortality estimates - Collecting and coding causes of death, and quality assessment

2. Mortality trends - Age-specific mortality profiles - Infant and child mortality - Adult mortality - Old-age mortality

3. Medical causes of death - General overviews. Age and cause-of-death components of life expectancy changes or differences - Cardiovascular diseases - Infectious diseases - Cancers - External causes - New health threats - Etc.

4. Differential mortality - Sex - Social categories - Education - Urban/rural - Geography - Ethnicity - Central European experiences - Etc.

5. Elements of explanation - The role of risk factors (alcohol, tobacco, environment, etc.) - Changes in health systems and health policies - Social systems and the welfare state - Biological and social aspects of Russian excess mortality - Economic changes and mortality - Culture and health - Causes of adult excess mortality

6. Forecasting mortality - What hypotheses can be used as a basis for forecasting mortality? - Can modelling past trends help to make projections? - To what extent do past forecasts fit with recent trends? - Case studies

International Organizing Committee (IOC) Serhii Pyrozhkov (IDSS, Kiev, president) and Natalia Foygt (IDSS, Kiev, organiser), Anatoli Vishnevsky (CDHE, Moscow), Vladimir Shkolnikov and Evgeni Andreev (MPIDR, Rostock), France Meslé and Jacques Vallin (INED, Paris)

 

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