Childbearing in the Time of War: Uncertainty and Fertility in Ukraine

Séminaire organisé dans le cadre de l'EDSD et ouvert au public.

Brienna Perelli-Harris (University of Southampton) 

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has created immense uncertainty for the Ukrainian population. This conflict, however, started in 2014, leading to turmoil in the east of the country and producing 1.7 million internally displaced persons. After 2014, fertility declined precipitously, and by 2021, Ukraine’s Total Fertility Rate was estimated to be below 1.2.

This presentation delves into how existential uncertainty, especially as a result of armed conflict, impacts fertility. I first present analyses of focus groups six months before Russia’s invasion to understand how uncertainty from armed conflict, the pandemic, and economic crisis influences childbearing decisions. Next I present findings from in-depth interviews conducted in April 2023 with women in two cities in Ukraine. These interviews suggest that war has widely varying, often conflicting effects. Finally, I reflect on fertility estimates since the start of the war and projections into the future, and how that will lead to extreme depopulation in Ukraine.  

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