French perceptions of population dynamics in France and worldwide

On the occasion of its 80th anniversary[1], the Institut National d’Études Demographiques or INED (French Institute for Demographic Studies) presents a study of changes in French perceptions of population dynamics. The analysis, based on data from the Pop Aware survey that was done as part of the ELIPSS internet panel survey, was conducted by Virginie de Luca Barrusse (University of Paris-1), Cécile Lefèvre (University Paris Cité and INED), and Jacques Véron (INED) and highlights how important population-related questions, and their potential impacts on economic, social and environmental issues, are in the eyes of the French population at large.

A constant interest in demographic questions and issues
Since the 1950s the French have manifested a lively interest in demographic issues. The 2018 Pop Aware survey shows that 92% of respondents consider those issues “important” or “very important,” an increase of 4 points from the 1959 finding of 88%. Interest in demographic questions is high regardless of social category, while the subject is of capital importance in the opinion of some of those categories. For example, 30% of managers and members of the higher intellectual professions consider demographic issues very important, slightly higher than the 25% of farm owners. Age, too, influences respondents’ answers: 42% of people over 60 consider world demographic issues “very important,” as against 29% of people under 35, who are also the age bracket most likely, at 12%, to think of those issues as “not very important.” Last, people with a marked interest in politics are also particularly attentive to demographic questions: over 98% of respondents in the first case consider those issues important or very important, as against 80% of people uninterested or only slightly interested in politics. 

A strong preference for population stability
Over two-thirds of respondents would prefer to see France’s population “remain stationary,” a figure that has itself remained fairly stable since the 1950s. This attitude contrasts with the one found immediately after World War II, when the emphasis was on growing the population, and in the 1970s, when fear of “depopulation” dominated public debate. The motivations behind this preference for population stability have evolved: 36% of responses mentioned economic reasons, such as employment and keeping France competitive, while 27% were formulated in demographic terms, such as generational balance and aging, and 25% expressed environmental concerns, such as resource management. Here again, age influences preference: 74% of French people aged 18-35 are in favor of stability, but people in that age bracket are also the ones who most often say they would like to see the population diminish, many for environmental reasons. Conversely, 30% of France’s over-60s favor a population increase, citing economic and social issues and concerns. 

The environment: the main preoccupation of the young
91% of the people questioned know that the world population is rising, and nearly 75% perceive that growth as a risk, specifically for the earth’s natural resources and environmental balance. The main concerns mentioned include exhausting resources, food-related tensions, and the environmental impacts of overpopulation. 

Of the population questions deemed most important (see table below), the effects of world population growth on sustainable development is the main preoccupation for all age brackets. Young people are particularly sensitive to the issue: 55% of under-30s consider the effects of world demographic growth on sustainable development the main issue, as against only 41% of those aged 60-69. Moreover, 28% of 30-year-olds identify population group movement driven by environmental conditions and climate change as a priority—a sharply higher figure than for over-70s (14%). The older generations, meanwhile, are more concerned about the effects of political and economic contexts on migration: 23% of over-70s, as against only 7% of under-30s (see table below).

The most important population issues for the French by sex and age bracket  (selected from a fixed list of 6)