Continued population ageing in France over the next half century

Authors: Laurent Toulemon, Élisabeth Algava, Nathalie Blanpain and Gilles Pison

Under the baseline scenario of the INSEE projections for 2070, the population of France will increase up to 2044 and then decline slowly. This is now considered the most likely trajectory, unlike earlier forecasts of longer-term growth. What is the basis for this revised projection? This article examines the various possible scenarios to shed light on the question.

According to INSEE projections published in 2021, the population of France will range between 58 million and 79 million in 2070, with a baseline scenario of 68 million. The baseline projection forecasts a population that is older than today, and that will decrease slightly from 2044 onwards, whereas previous projections assumed continued growth. A surplus of deaths over births would no longer be offset by positive net migration. The new projections differ greatly from those of 2016, which had projected a population in 2070 of 76 million. The significant difference is due to the downward revisions of the size of the population in 2021 and to changes in the fertility, life expectancy, and migration assumptions.

Published on: 16/02/2022