An overview of Türkiye’s population on the 100th anniversary of the Republic

The Republic of Türkiye was born 100 years ago, in October 1923. Its population of 13 million at that time increased more than sixfold in a century to reach 85 million in 2020, and will probably reach 100 million by 2060. Dilek Yildiz, Tugba Adali, and Caner Özdemir recount the history of the remarkable demographic transition in a country that now shows signs of ageing, describe its current population, and look at the challenges ahead.

Since its foundation, the total fertility rate has dropped from 6 births per woman to fewer than 2 in 2020, with changes in the direction of family policies, more or less natalist depending on the period. The country has experienced a steady decline in infant and adult mortality so that the population is beginning to show the first signs of aging: those aged 65 and over now account for nearly 10% of the population, a state of affairs that has been presented as worrying in several official documents. The size of this age group is almost 8 million and is expected to exceed 27 million by 2080.

Additionally, Türkiye, once a country of origin, has gradually become a transit and host country for migrants, mainly from Syria and other Middle Eastern countries.

As the largest refugee-hosting country in the world, the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and high unemployment rates among the young population pose challenges for the future of Türkiye.

The intention to emigrate from Turkey is high among young people, due to the uncertainty of the country facing economic crises and high unemployment.

Authors: 
Dilek Yildiz (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Vienna, Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences (VID/ÖAW))
Tugba Adali (Centre for Longitudinal Studies UCL Social Research Institute)
Caner Özdemir (Zonguldak Bülent Ecevit University, Labour Economics and Industrial relations)

Published on: 15/02/2023