The French population is still increasing…but for how long?
The population of France reached 68.6 million on 1 January 2025. It is still growing, but will it continue to do so? In this latest issue of Population & Societies, Gilles Pison (National Museum of Natural History and INED) and Laurent Toulemon (INED) project population trends up to 2070. Natural increase – the difference between births and deaths – is falling and will become negative in 2027; net migration is now the main driver of population growth. Until when will this dynamic offset the decline in births?
Understanding and anticipating future population trends
The population of France on 1 January 2025 was an estimated 68.6 million, of which 66.4 million in metropolitan France (mainland France and Corsica) and 2.3 million in the overseas departments and regions. In 2024, it grew by +0.25%, with net migration (+152,000) accounting for 90% of the increase and natural increase (+17,000) just 10%. Under the authors’ ‘2024’ projection, natural increase will become negative in 2027, as deaths begin to outnumber births. The population will nonetheless continue to grow, up to a peak of 70 million in the 2040s, before gradually dropping to 68 million in 2070.
Slower progress in life expectancy
While life expectancy in 2024 rose above the level recorded before the COVID-19 pandemic, reaching 80.0 years for males and 85.6 years for females, it is now progressing more slowly. Why is this?
Uncertain future trends
The projection scenario studied in this article is based on fertility that remains stable at 1.62 children per woman and steady net migration of +152,000 per year. However, continued fertility decline, changes in net migration or future health crises may affect the size and composition of the future French population.
Source :Is the French population on a path to decline? , Gilles Pison, Laurent Toulemon, Population & Societies, n° 631
On line March 2025
