Intended and realized fertility: France and Italy compared

Within Europe, France and Italy stand virtually opposed in terms of fertility: women in France have 2 children on average, as against 1.4 in Italy. The difference is explained in part by the fact that women in Italy have their first child at a later age. By age 25, 42% of women in France born between 1960 and 1969 have already had their first child, as against 35% in Italy.

Intended fertility in the two countries is different. In France, 43% of couples of childbearing age desire to have two children and 41% want three or more, whereas in Italy the predominant desire is for two children (60%). But despite this difference, the symbolic reference of a family with at least two children persists in both countries; few women desire no children or only one child, including in Italy where increasing numbers of women are having only one child in their childbearing years.

For a recent survey of the two countries (Generations and Gender Survey), the same persons were questioned twice. The first time, they were asked if they intended to have a child "in the next three years." Respondents’ intentions were then compared with their answers the second time, when they were asked whether they had actually had a child in the following three years (Figure).

In general, "negative" fertility intentions are strongly predictive of behaviour: only 6% of persons in France stating they did not want children (response "No") had had a child and only 2% in Italy. Conversely, "positive" intentions tend to overestimate behaviour: only two-thirds of respondents who firmly intended to have a child (response "Yes") actually did.

But above and beyond these resemblances between countries, one specificity can be identified. The proportion of couples who did have a child is systematically higher in France, regardless of expressed intention. In particular, 32% of people in France who were uncertain (response "No, probably not") did have a child, as against 9% in Italy. Uncertain respondents’ attitude toward the future seems more flexible in France than in Italy, and this may be due to a contextual difference: family policy is more developed in France, namely when it comes to helping couples fit together work and family life.

Sources: Generations and Gender Survey. France : Ined-Insee, Erfi-GGS, 2005-2008 ; Italie : Istat-FSS-GGS, 2003-2007 [ERFI Survey Website]
Contact : Arnaud Régnier-Loilier
Online : December 2011