Demography of the Greater Caribbean

The Greater Caribbean [Grande Caraïbe in French], comprises forty distinct geopolitical territories, including an archipelago of islands in the Caribbean Sea—two of which are French overseas territories (Martinique and Guadeloupe)—and a group of continental Central and South American countries that includes the French overseas territory of French Guiana. In 2020, the population of the Greater Caribbean was estimated at 301 million, with an average annual growth rate of 1.2% during the preceding 20 years. Over 80% of those inhabitants lived in Mexico, Columbia, Venezuela and Guatemala. 

Figure 1 — Annual population growth rate for the 40 Greater Caribbean territories, 2000-2020

Scope: 40 territories of the Greater Caribbean.
Source : 2024 Revision by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs; Population Census, INSEE.

From 2000 to 2020, demographic growth was strongest on the small islands, particularly those with a flourishing luxury tourism industry—considerable source of jobs, many of which are filled by immigrants to those islands. 

French Guiana is in fourth position for demographic growth, at over 2.9% per year. Meanwhile, the populations of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico have fallen considerably (respectively -1.1% and -0.8%), primarily due to emigration to the United States, with which these islands have strong ties. Moreover, in 2017, the hurricanes Irma and Maria, led residents to flee these islands. The population of the French department of Martinique has also been declining, since 2009 (-0.3%), due to negative net migration and a level of natural increase too low to offset it. The population of Guadeloupe has remained stable.

The demographic profiles of Caribbean countries and geopolitical territories clearly vary, as shown by an INSEE study in which Arnaud Régnier-Loilier and Didier Breton took part The study identified four distinct demographic situations in the Greater Caribbean. 

This first group accounts for 69% of the population of the Greater Caribbean, most of whom live in Latin America. It is characterized by high birth and total fertility rates (TFR). In 2020, the TFR in eight of these territories—including French Guiana, Guatemala, Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic and Honduras—was above replacement level, at 2.1 children per woman. Indeed, French Guiana had the highest TFR that year of the entire Greater Caribbean, at 3.8 children per woman. And demographic growth there is due primarily to positive natural increase, i.e., a greater number of births than deaths. 

This group, made up of island dwellers and inhabitants of Central Latin American countries, accounts for 26% of the Greater Caribbean population. Despite a relatively large proportion of persons aged 25 to 59 (49%), fertility rates there are lower (13 per 1,000 inhabitants, as against 16 per 1,000). Since 2000, fewer young people aged 0 to 24 have been leaving these territories, an observation that applies in particular to Jamaica and Saint Lucia, while the number of people aged 60 and over in them has increased, indicating that a population aging process is under way.

This group, which includes Martinique and Guadeloupe, accounts for 1% of the Greater Caribbean population. Here mortality rates are high, with the U.S. Virgin Islands recording the highest rate, at 16 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants. The high number of deaths is explained by the large proportion of older persons (aged 60 and over)—much higher than the average for the Caribbean at large. In 2020, the aging index in this fourth group was 1.1, or 110 persons aged 65 or over per 100 persons under 20, a rate in sharp contrast with the average indicator in the Caribbean: 0.23. Emigration by young people and population aging in these territories lead to negative natural increase and net migration figures, which in turn lead to demographic or decline. 

Haiti, which represents 4% of the Caribbean population, has the highest infant and child mortality rate in the region, at 47 per 1000 inhabitants (as against 27 per 1000 in the Dominican Republic, the second-highest rate) and the lowest life expectancy at birth (60.7 for men and 67 for women). It is also the Caribbean territory with the greatest young population: in 2020, half of Haitians—52%—were under 25. Since 2000, several political and institutional crises, together with repeated natural disasters, have made the country particularly unstable. According to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI), Haiti ranks 158 out of the 192 territories of the world recognized by the UN, with a very low HDI score of 0.557.

Figure 2 – Demographic group to which Greater Caribbean territories belonged from 2000 to 2020 

Scope: 40 territories of the Greater Caribbean.
Source : 2024 Revision by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs; Population Census, INSEE.

Source: Maurice Bilionière, Zinaïda Salibekyan-Rosain, Gwenaëlle Taupe, Didier Breton, Arnaud Régnier-Loilier, 2024, En 2020, les Antilles françaises et la Guyane se situent aux deux extrémités des dynamiques démographiques caribéennes

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Online: December 2024