2024: the United Nations publishes new world population projections

There are 8.2 billion human beings on the planet this year (2024), and the projection for 2050 is 9.7 billion. A peak of 10.3 billion inhabitants is expected in the mid of 2080s, at which point the world population is expected to head downwards reaching 10.2 billion in 2100. Whereas the populations of some countries continue to grow quickly, other countries are seeing population shrinkage. Concomitantly, the world’s population is aging as life expectancy at the global scale continues to rise and fertility to fall. These are some of the major takeaways from the latest United Nations world population estimates and projections (World Population Prospects: The 2024 Revision).

In the framework of INED’s mission to diffuse knowledge in the scientific field of demography, the Institute has been chosen by the United Nations Population Division to disseminate the results of its latest world population projections in France.

Six important results are clear from the Population Division’s medium scenario projections.

The population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to rise by two-thirds between now and 2050, whereas the populations of Europe and North America in that same year should be much the same size as they are today. 

Today, two-thirds of the world population live in countries or regions where fertility is below 2.1 children per woman.  In 2024, fertility is higher, on average, than that figure in sub-Saharan Africa (4.3 children per woman); Oceania, not including Australia and New Zealand (3.0); North Africa and West Asia (2.7); and Central and South Asia (2.2). 

Between 1990 and 2024, the world fertility rate fell from 3.31 children per woman to 2.25. It is expected to decline again—to 2.07—between now and 2050.

Global life expectancy at birth, which rose from 64.0 years in 1990 to 73.3 in 2024, should continue to rise—to as high as 77.0 in 2050. And differences between countries in this area have been considerably reduced. However, a number of wide gaps subsist. In 2024, life expectancy at birth in the world’s least advanced countries is 7 years below the global average. 

Between now and the second half of the 2070s, the number of people aged 65 or over worldwide is expected to reach 2.2 billion and pull ahead of the number of people under 18.

More and more countries are experiencing a decrease in population size due to low fertility and, in some cases, substantial emigration. In 2024, there are 61 countries where this the case, including China, Japan, and Russia. The populations in these countries are expected to fall 14% between now and 2054, with the sharpest falls anticipated in Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Lithuania, and Moldavia should the strong emigration and low fertility trends continue there. The population of China should decrease by 200 million—close to 14%—between 2024 and 2054. In India, already the world’s most populous country, the number of people is projected to rise by nearly 14% over the same 30-year period. 

In 50 of the world’s countries, immigration is expected to attenuate population decreases due to low fertility rates and already considerable demographic aging. Positive net migration (more migrant entries than departures) can entirely or partially offset what has become negative natural increase (more deaths than births in a country). This is what happens today in many European Union states, but the effect is not restricted to Europe. More than half of the 50 countries where immigration could play this cushioning role are located in regions other than Europe. They include Australia, Chili, the Gulf States, Japan, Russia, the USA, and Canada. 

Emigration generally has little effect on the departure country’s population size. However, in the coming decades it is expected to contribute substantially to the decline in population numbers in 14 countries already showing extremely low fertility.

Source :  World Population Prospect 2024 ONU 

Online: July 2024