Will rising temperatures across the world bring about an increase in mortality?

Until now, rising temperatures on earth have not caused mortality to rise. On the contrary, mortality has continued to fall in all countries (except those experiencing civil wars). And we do not have reliable enough information to state that mortality will increase in particular countries in the future due to continued rising temperatures. Projections by the United Nations Human Climate Horizons program predict increased premature death rates in countries likely to experience intense, prolonged heatwaves—in the Middle East, for example, and tropical Africa and Southeast Asia—especially if the heatwaves are combined with extreme humidity. By contrast, other countries—France, for example—may see mortality decrease in the future due to a decline in deaths related to cold temperatures [1].

[1] Hannah Ritchie, 2024, How many people die from extreme temperatures, and how this could change in the future: Part two, published online at OurWorldinData.org.