Is the current fall in birth numbers in France exceptional?

Yes, it is fairly exceptional. If we exclude 2014, when Mayotte became a French department, and 2021, as the COVID-19 pandemic showed signs of receding, births have been falling in France for nearly 12 years. In 2023, 678,000 babies were born—around 150,000 fewer births than in 2010. Prior to that, France had also seen relatively long and intense periods of falling births; for example, 1988 to 1993, when they fell by 60,000 in 5 years. What’s exceptional this time is the extremely low number of births, the lowest since the post-war period, when France had nearly 30 million fewer people than now. It is virtually certain that birth numbers will begin rising again in the coming years because the considerable number of people born in France between 2000 and 2010 will be having children in the coming decade. But it is difficult to predict how big that rise will be: either the total fertility rate (TFR) will increase, as happened between 1994 and 2010, or fertility will remain below replacement level (1.7 children per woman in 2023) over the long term. Time will tell. 

The 2023 data are provisional.

Didier Breton, Nicolas Belliot, Magali Barbieri et al., 2022, Recent Demographic Trends in France 2022. Ongoing Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic at Both Regional and National Levels, Population (French edition) 77: 535-614.

En 2023, la fécondité chute, l’espérance de vie se redresse, Insee Première, n° 1978, janvier 2024.

Didier Breton, John Tomkinson, 14 février 2024, Fécondité française : anatomie d’une chute, The Conversation

Update: February 2024