The political economy of child-related leave policies in OECD member states: key trends and the impact of the crisis

As migrant populations are ageing, migration is becoming less a factor of demographic rejuvenation than in the past. Ageing migrant projections provide data for social and health services that will have to serve linguitiscally and culturally diverse populations. Although migrants tend to return less than they planned, return migration is the main component of old age migration, but migrants will engage more and more in back and forth moves in the future, due to easier and cheaper travel. Old age immigration is also significant, mostly for females: late family reunification, zero generation (migrants’ parents coming to help in child care), etc. These flows will tend to rebalance the sex ratios of migrants - who were mostly males - from labour sending countries. However, the main determinant of migrant ageing is the shape of their age pyramids that vary according to origin, following migration history: pre- and post-independence migration, economic booms and crisis. Migration policies, like the closed border policy following the first oil shock in 1974 and subsequent family reunification will also impact on trends in migrant ageing.

Olivier Thévenon